Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."