Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
